Preview of 2012

At this point in the process, it is way too early to know for certain whom the Republicans will nominate in 2012, but it is fun to speculate. The nomination battle will be shaped not only by those who throw their proverbial hat in the ring, but also by issues and events that they will not be able to control.

The Republican Party itself is evolving. In opposition across the board and no longer beholden to George W. Bush or majority leadership in either house of Congress, Republican candidates in 2012 will have more latitude to refashion the party in their own image than did John McCain. Still, candidates will have to toe the line for traditional Republican principles, and each will try to take up the mantle of Ronald Reagan.

Iowa and New Hampshire appear to be keeping their places as the traditional first fights, so that calculus drives some of what I relate below. A question both in these states and those that follow: will Republican voters respond to the personal appeal they feel toward the candidates or to their policy positions – or some combination of the two?

As of today, here is my breakdown of those who may enter the Republican nomination fight. Some possible 2012 contenders, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford and Nevada Senator John Ensign, have self-destructed over the past few months, so I have left them off the list.

Mitt Romney. By any measure the former Governor of Massachusetts is an attractive candidate. He has been through this process before, and Republicans have traditionally given the nomination to those who have previously been through the fight, paid their dues and waited their turn. His “Free and Strong America PAC” will keep him raising money and distributing it to Republican candidates across the country, thereby building his chit pile. If the economy is still in tough shape after the 2010 mid-term elections, Romney’s deep background in business and economic issues will be a benefit, doubly so if those who vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses focus on the economy rather than social issues, where Romney has had trouble in the past. He has the remnants of his 2008 campaign machinery in place and is a very effective organizer. Still, as much as I hate to say it, his Mormon faith may be his undoing.

Sarah Palin. The Republican establishment doesn’t like her. Millions of Republican pro-life, values voters and Second Amendment voters love her, and these are the people who vote in caucuses and primaries. She has tapped into a nerve in the Republican base that may surprise pundits and elites, especially if they continue to dismiss her as an intellectual lightweight and bumpkin that has no business in national politics; indeed, it may make her something of a conservative folk hero. Palin’s “Sarah PAC” raised $700,000 in the first half of the year; a substantial amount of money that she can spread around to Republican candidates in 2010. Her abrupt resignation last month as Alaska Governor may damage her, but if she plays her cards right, she can move past this and expand her base. She is young and can afford to wait – in about 20 years she’ll be the same age as Hillary Clinton when she first ran for president in 2008.

Newt Gingrich. If policy alternatives to those offered by the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats are needed, then Newt Gingrich can deliver. He is at once wonky, strategic and tactical in his thinking. Articulate and driven, he revived the Republican brand in the 1990’s with the Contract With America, and helped to balance the budget for four years while Speaker of the House. If in 2012 Republicans are looking for a senior statesman to match up against President Obama, then Gingrich may be their man. On the negative side, he has challenges in explaining some things in his personal life, and after a decade of Democrats using his name as the boogey man in direct mail appeals his negatives are still high. (Disclosure: I work for his American Solutions organization).

Mike Huckabee. Huckabee did very well in Iowa and with social conservatives throughout the country in 2008. He is articulate and likeable, but many fiscal conservatives are uncomfortable with his policies. He was able to straddle many of the issues between the positions of McCain and Romney in 2008, so it is hard to know where he comes down on a good number of them. Since the 2008 election cycle, Huckabee has settled into regular appearances, guest host gigs and his own show on Fox. One wonders if he would prefer to remain in this rather than doing what is needed for 2012. That said, he has been to Iowa to campaign for Bob Vander Plaats for governor.

Bobby Jindal. Yes, his response to the President’s Address to Congress earlier this year was too folksy, bland and underwhelming, yet he is intelligent, principled, personable, a hard worker and gaining more experience every day as Governor of Louisiana. His drawback is that he may be too young. If in 2012 the electorate think that Barack Obama is too young and inexperienced to be president, they are unlikely to elect someone younger. Like Palin, Jindal may be better with a few more years under his belt.

Tim Pawlenty. His announcement that he would not seek another term as Governor of Minnesota has been taken by many as a signal that he would like to run for president. He is young, smart, hard working and has good political sense. It is unclear whether he has the conservative credentials that the Republican base will be looking for. He is unknown in much of the country, but has been given high-profile speaking slots at a number of Republican gatherings this year, which suggests that he has establishment support and is viewed as somewhat of a policy wonk.

Charlie Crist. The Governor of Florida is busy seeking election to the senate in 2010 and is ambitious. He is fairly moderate, but tacking rightward for the Republican senate primary against former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. He is popular in Florida, a very diverse state. He has raised a lot of money for the Republican senate primary in Florida, which proves that he can raise money nationwide and has friends in the right places. Still, his reputation as a moderate may hurt his chances at exciting the base of the Republican Party in caucuses and primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Haley Barbour. He is well known in Republican circles, as the former party chairman and current Governor of Mississippi, but his appeal outside of the South may be limited. He is an effective administrator, but his former job as a high-profile lobbyist in Washington, DC plays against type.

Ron Paul. He has an active and energetic base of support in the party and in the Libertarian Party that could be effective in an open nomination. He has proven he can raise money. Still, his views are outside of the traditional Republican mainstream and he may have gathered all the support out there for these views.

Wildcards: Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Condi Rice, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Jim DeMint. Quickly:

•Giuliani: Puts New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania into play; more liberal than the base on social issues; doesn’t seem to have the passion for another run, and may seek the governorship of New York in 2010.
•Thompson: Has an effective and appealing message and could raise a lot of money if he is more aggressive than in his previous run.
•Bush: Smart, innovative, a very effective and popular Governor of Florida. But for his last name Republicans would be begging him to enter the race; he might have to wait until 2016 if he wants to run at all.
•Perry: He is a popular and effective Governor of Texas who has a primary challenge brewing with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison eyeing the Governor’s Mansion. Might he opt out of the potential civil war in Texas Republican politics to run for president?
•Rice: The former Secretary of State’s name has been mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate in California, but she has so far demurred. My guess is that she flirts with running if only to boost her book sales.
•Cantor: The Number Two Republican in the House is young (45), smart and an effective communicator. He may be too young and so far has proven a good tactician; his policy positions are a bit more elusive.
•Ryan: Young, smart, telegenic and serious in submitting real, workable policy alternatives to what the Democrats are offering on entitlements and other issues, the Wisconsin Congressman and ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee has a bright future – just not yet, in my view.
•DeMint: A traditional Southern conservative, DeMint is not well known outside of his region, but could make a splash nationwide if he decides to run.

Again, this is my view as of this date. Remember that at this point four years ago, everyone knew that Hillary Rodham Clinton was going to be the Democratic nominee and Barack Obama was gearing up for his run for the Senate from Illinois.

The players and the game can shift radically.