Bipartisanship After 2010 Election

My short answer hovers somewhere between “Maybe” and “No”-- but not for the reasons you’re thinking.

My answer is not cynical (at least I don’t think it is). My answer leans toward “No,” not because of party politics, but because of intra-party politics. Both parties have seen ideological battles recently and I suspect that this trend will accelerate.

The Republicans worked themselves into a snit over the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district, when county Republican chairmen/women chose New York State Senator Dede Scozzafava as the Republican nominee, only to have a third party (New York Conservative Party) candidate, Doug Hoffman, harness rank-and-file Republican disappointment with the decision and ride it to within a few hundred votes of victory after Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat.

Even more recently, Congressional Democrats, looking at polls showing that the American voter is becoming disenchanted with their agenda, have been having a hard time passing legislation because conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats and liberals have started to fight. This likely will continue now that President Obama has announced his decision to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan; a position anathema to the anti-war Left wing of the Democratic party.

Anti-war liberals, who until now have closely followed President Obama and his agenda, may feel liberated to criticize his decision. Liberal activists may likewise feel liberated to criticize him on this as well as other decisions they’ve held back on criticizing.

Some prominent Congressional Blue Dog Democrats are so disenchanted that they have announced within the past week or so that they will not run for re-election. This exodus might accelerate if President Obama’s and Congressional Democrat’s favorability numbers continue to fall.

Gallup just announced that President Obama’s approval rating is now 47%, the lowest level of any president at this point in his term since Gallup began polling in 1938. At 27%, Congress’ approval rating is even lower. Slightly more than one-third of Americans (36%) think that the country is on the right track.

How this will all play into the 2010 election – as well as its aftermath and hope for bipartisanship – is at this time murky.

On the Republican side, right after the 2010 Congressional elections, the 2012 presidential campaign will commence and Republicans will likely continue the process of defining for themselves what it means to be a Republican. This will pit social conservatives against fiscal conservatives against national security conservatives against conservative populists (or some combination thereof).

A final reason that bipartisanship will likely not prevail: Debt. Money and budgets will be tight. Some in Congress want to continue the spending spree while others want to restrain spending and pay down debt. This will cause a lot of strain in government at all levels, in Congress, in state governments and in local governments.

Most people have a hard time understanding and conceptualizing billions and trillions of dollars, but think of it this way: In 2006, $1 trillion was raised for federal coffers from income taxes. How much did you pay in income taxes that year?

We’re now approaching $10 trillion in debt, not counting the unfunded ticking time bombs of Social Security and Medicare. Take your personal 2006 tax number and multiply by 10. Daunting, isn’t it? Of course, we have nothing to worry about: Those wacky Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economists assume that the tax rate will have no effect on your willingness to work, so incomes will, at a minimum, remain stagnate and the government will continue to bring in the same amount of money.

As an aside, the same CBO reported on December 4th that our government – presently only two months into the 2010 fiscal year – is already $292 billion in the red, and posted a record $1.4 trillion of debt for fiscal year 2009, which ended September 30th.

This increasing debt load has put in jeopardy the United States’ AAA bond rating, according to Bloomberg News. Our debt is now 97.5% of our Gross Domestic Product, defined as the total amount of all goods and services produced in the United States in one year.

The challenges of our debt coupled with the many other important issues that need to be addressed to reform our country for the future are what can bring people from both parties together to work in a bipartisan fashion without regard to entrenched interests. For the most part, the American people agree on the big issues. Our politicians at all levels need to shed narrow partisan interests and serve the needs of the American people.

In short, when times are tough, voters expect politicians to stop the clever games and “gotcha” politics and focus on the real needs – to make the tough decisions and not kick the can down the road. It is the hope that our elected leaders will realize the growing frustration of the American voter and get serious that leads me to give a final answer of “Maybe” to the question of bipartisanship.